Development and validation of a clinical predictive model for severe and critical pediatric COVID-19 infection.

INTRODUCTION: Children infected with COVID-19 are susceptible to severe manifestations. We aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for severe/ critical pediatric COVID-19 infection utilizing routinely available hospital level data to ascertain the likelihood of developing severe manifestations. METHODS: The predictive model was based on an analysis of registry data from COVID-19 positive patients admitted to five tertiary pediatric hospitals across Asia [Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia (two centers) and Pakistan]. Independent predictors of severe/critical COVID-19 infection were determined using multivariable logistic regression. A training cohort (n = 802, 70%) was used to develop the prediction model which was then validated in a test cohort (n = 345, 30%). The discriminative ability and performance of this model was assessed by calculating the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) from final Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (ROC). RESULTS: A total of 1147 patients were included in this analysis. In the multivariable model, infant age group, presence of comorbidities, fever, vomiting, seizures and higher absolute neutrophil count were associated with an increased risk of developing severe/critical COVID-19 infection. The presence of coryza at presentation, higher hemoglobin and platelet count were associated with a decreased risk of severe/critical COVID-19 infection. The AUC (95%CI) generated for this model from the training and validation cohort were 0.96 (0.94, 0.98) and 0.92 (0.86, 0.97), respectively. CONCLUSION: This predictive model using clinical history and commonly used laboratory values was valuable in estimating the risk of developing a severe/critical COVID-19 infection in hospitalized children. Further validation is needed to provide more insights into its utility in clinical practice.

Changes Adopted in Asian Pediatric Hospitals during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Report from the Pediatric Acute and Critical Care COVID-19 Registry of Asia

There is wide variation in the overall clinical impact of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across countries worldwide. Changes adopted pertaining to the management of pediatric patients, in particular, the provision of respiratory support during the COVID-19 pandemic is poorly described in Asia. We performed a multicenter survey of 20 Asian pediatric hospitals to determine workflow changes adopted during the pandemic. Data from centers of high-income (HIC), upper middle income (UMIC), and lower middle income (LMIC) countries were compared. All 20 sites over nine countries (HIC: Japan [4] and Singapore [2];UMIC: China [3], Malaysia [3] and Thailand [2];and LMIC: India [1], Indonesia [2], Pakistan [1], and Philippines [2]) responded to this survey. This survey demonstrated substantial outbreak adaptability. The major differences between the three income categories were that HICs were (1) more able/willing to minimize use of noninvasive ventilation or high-flow nasal cannula therapy in favor of early intubation, and (2) had greater availability of negative-pressure rooms and powered air-purifying respirators. Further research into the best practices for respiratory support are warranted. In particular, innovation on cost-effective measures in infection control and respiratory support in the LMIC setting should be considered in preparation for future waves of COVID-19 infection.

Changes Adopted in Asian Pediatric Hospitals during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Report from the Pediatric Acute and Critical Care COVID-19 Registry of Asia.

There is wide variation in the overall clinical impact of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across countries worldwide. Changes adopted pertaining to the management of pediatric patients, in particular, the provision of respiratory support during the COVID-19 pandemic is poorly described in Asia. We performed a multicenter survey of 20 Asian pediatric hospitals to determine workflow changes adopted during the pandemic. Data from centers of high-income (HIC), upper middle income (UMIC), and lower middle income (LMIC) countries were compared. All 20 sites over nine countries (HIC: Japan [4] and Singapore [2]; UMIC: China [3], Malaysia [3] and Thailand [2]; and LMIC: India [1], Indonesia [2], Pakistan [1], and Philippines [2]) responded to this survey. This survey demonstrated substantial outbreak adaptability. The major differences between the three income categories were that HICs were (1) more able/willing to minimize use of noninvasive ventilation or high-flow nasal cannula therapy in favor of early intubation, and (2) had greater availability of negative-pressure rooms and powered air-purifying respirators. Further research into the best practices for respiratory support are warranted. In particular, innovation on cost-effective measures in infection control and respiratory support in the LMIC setting should be considered in preparation for future waves of COVID-19 infection.